How Well Do Structural Demand Models Work? Counterfactual Predictions in...
Discrete choice demand models are widely used for counterfactual policy simulations, yet their out-of-sample performance is rarely assessed. This paper uses a large-scale policy change in Boston to...
View ArticleThe Gold Pool (1961-1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System. Lessons...
The Gold Pool (1961-1968) was one of the most ambitious cases of central bank cooperation in history. Major central banks pooled interventions - sharing profits and losses - to stabilize the dollar...
View ArticleEducational Upgrading and Returns to Skills in Latin America: Evidence from a...
This paper documents the evolution of wage differentials and the supply of workers by educational level for sixteen Latin American countries over the period 1991-2013. We find a pattern of rather...
View ArticleDaily Price Limits and Destructive Market Behavior -- by Ting Chen, Zhenyu...
We use account-level data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to show that daily price limits, a widely adopted market stabilization mechanism, may lead to unintended, destructive market behavior: large...
View ArticleThe Life-Cycle Dynamics of Exporters and Multinational Firms -- by Anna...
This paper studies the life-cycle dynamics of exporters and multinational enterprises (MNEs). We present a dynamic model of trade and MNE activity in which the mode of serving a market depends on the...
View ArticlePremium or Penalty? Labor Market Returns to Novice Public Sector Teachers --...
It is unclear whether public sector teachers are under or overpaid relative to other occupations due to lack of knowledge about teachers' outside labor market options and other unobserved attributes...
View ArticleDoes Economic Insecurity Affect Employee Innovation? -- by Shai Bernstein,...
Do household wealth shocks affect employee productivity? We examine this question through the lens of technological innovation, by comparing employees that worked at the same firm and lived in the same...
View ArticleNowcasting the Local Economy: Using Yelp Data to Measure Economic Activity --...
Can new data sources from online platforms help to measure local economic activity? Government datasets from agencies such as the U.S. Census Bureau provide the standard measures of local economic...
View ArticleThe Development Effects of the Extractive Colonial Economy: The Dutch...
Colonial powers typically organized economic activity in the colonies to maximize their economic returns. While the literature has emphasized long-run negative economic impacts via institutional...
View ArticleOlder Americans Would Work Longer If Jobs Were Flexible -- by John Ameriks,...
Older Americans, even those who are long retired, have strong willingness to work, especially in jobs with flexible schedules. For many, labor force participation near or after normal retirement age is...
View ArticleProductivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium. -- by David Rezza...
We provide a general non-parametric formula for aggregating microeconomic shocks in general equilibrium economies with distortions such as taxes, markups, frictions to resource reallocation, and...
View ArticleChildren, Time Allocation and Consumption Insurance -- by Richard Blundell,...
We consider the life cycle choices of a household that in each period decides how much to consume and how to allocate spouses' time to work, leisure, and childcare. In an environment with uncertainty,...
View ArticleThe Rise, the Fall, and the Resurrection of Iceland -- by Sigridur...
This paper documents how the Icelandic banking system grew from 100 percent of GDP in 1998 to 9 times GDP in 2008 when it failed. We base the analysis on data from the banks that was made public when...
View ArticleMeasuring Success in Education: The Role of Effort on the Test Itself -- by...
Tests measuring and comparing educational achievement are an important policy tool. We experimentally show that offering students extrinsic incentives to put forth effort on such achievement tests has...
View ArticleWhen Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering? -- by Alberto Abadie,...
In empirical work in economics it is common to report standard errors that account for clustering of units. Typically, the motivation given for the clustering adjustments is that unobserved components...
View ArticleThe Tesla Roadster Will Turn the Bugatti into a Wrist Watch
In three years Tesla will be rolling out the fastest production car in the world. And not a "production car" as in, we made ten or so of these so it can be called one. No, a production car that rolls...
View ArticleSparse Bayesian time-varying covariance estimation in many dimensions....
We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use...
View ArticleCalibration of Distributionally Robust Empirical Optimization Models....
In this paper, we study the out-of-sample properties of robust empirical optimization and develop a theory for data-driven calibration of the robustness parameter for worst-case maximization problems...
View ArticleRobust bounds for the American Put. (arXiv:1711.06466v1 [q-fin.MF])
We consider the problem of finding a model-free upper bound on the price of an American put given the prices of a family of European puts on the same underlying asset. Specifically we assume that the...
View ArticleMulti-objective risk-averse two-stage stochastic programming problems....
We consider a multi-objective risk-averse two-stage stochastic programming problem with a multivariate convex risk measure. We suggest a convex vector optimization formulation with set-valued...
View Article